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Spring Training is underway, so it's time that I start discussing the Pirates' upcoming season.
Today, I'll take a look at the infield.
The rates I'll be using as estimations are ZiPS projections from Baseball Think Factory's Dan Szymborski.

C - Humberto Cota (.238/.296/.373) and Ryan Doumit (.264/.327/.424)
1B - Sean Casey (.313/.373/.441)
2B - Jose Castillo (.277/.325/.394)
SS - Jack Wilson (.272/.314/.395)
3B - Joe Randa (.277/.332/.440)

Well, that's not exactly an infield filled with heavy hitters, now is it??

Cota will likely see the majority of the time behind the plate despite being a worse hitter than both Doumit and Ronny Paulino. He's a better defender than either of the others, but that sub-.300 OBP is tough to swallow.

At the corners, the Pirates will have two newcomers in Sean Casey and Joe Randa. Both are veterans that can draw a walk and have nice doubles power. Normally, that's not how you want to describe your corner infielders, but the Pirates need players that are actually able to get on base. It's tough to score runs from the dugout. I've heard people knock both of these acquistions, but I'm actually pretty fond of these moves and think they'll help the team. After all, they're only replacing Daryle Ward and Freddy Sanchez/Rob Mackowiak.

Up the middle, Jack Wilson and Jose Castillo return. Neither one is a good hitter(Castillo's 2005 OPS+ was 87, Wilson's was 72). However, they should form one of the better double-play combos in the NL.

Defensively, this is going to be a very good infield. Randa has a solid reputation, but it looks as if he may be a slight step down from Sanchez. Casey will be a pretty significant upgrade over Ward/Eldred. As mentioned above, Wilson/Castillo has a chance to be a very nice combo up the middle.

Offensively, Casey is the only one who's going to provide much offense, and he could still be worse than the average 1B due to the nature of the position. Castillo and Doumit both have room to grow. If the Pirates are going to get more offense than expected from the infield, it's going to come from one of those two.

Depth: Ronny Paulino is waiting for a chance behind Cota and Doumit. At first, Craig Wilson could easily slide to first and Brad Eldred is going to be in AAA getting some more seasoning. At third, Freddy Sanchez is probably Randa's equal. Sanchez can also back up Castillo at second. At SS, the team could be in trouble if Wilson goes down. There doesn't seem to be anyone pushing for major league playing time right now.

Overall: While this isn't a group of All Stars, there aren't any glaring holes. They upgraded at first and are counting on natural progression for improvement at a couple of other spots. Signing Randa to replace Sanchez is questionable, but not indefensible. For the Pirates, this looks like a pretty good group.

Posted by Kevin Appleby at 12:24 PM | Permalink | Comments (706) | TrackBacks (0)

Apparently, I wasn't the only one impressed with Scalabrine's play the other night. Kevin Hench of FoxSports.com praises him as well (Link).

Free Craig Wilson!! Eventually, I'll write a diatribe discussing what a bad idea it was to sign Jeromy Burnitz in order to keep Wilson out of the every day lineup. But for now, I'll just begin beating the drum for change. Free Craig Wilson! Free Craig Wilson!!

I've been inspired by Aaron Gleeman to begin a weight loss campaign of my own. I'm older than he is, and have more weight to lose than he does, so it's time for me to get cracking. He's down 26 already, so I've got some catching up to do.

As a Steeler fan, I know Cedric Wilson is probably a better receiver than Antwaan Randle El, but ARE brings more to the table than just receiving. He's a dangerous return man and he is the key to a majority of the team's gadget plays (plus, he's a better backup QB option than Tommy Maddox, but that's neither here nor there). Please bring him back.

Posted by Kevin Appleby at 09:09 AM | Permalink | Comments (52) | TrackBacks (0)

Last night, the Celtics took the Cavaliers to double overtime before falling 113-109.

Each team's star had a huge game, as they tried to carry their teams to victory. LeBron had 43 points, 12 rebounds, 11 assists, 2 steals, and 4 blocks for the Cavs. Paul Pierce had 50 points, 7 rebounds, and 8 assists for the Celtics before fouling out after 54 minutes of play.

So we have a tight game against a quality team....and somehow Brian Scalabrine manages to play 34 (!!!) minutes, totalling 2 points (on 1/5 shooting), 2 turnovers, and 4 personal fouls. That's it. No rebounds, no assists, no steals, no blocks. Now, I've heard all the nonsense about how he does the little things that don't show up in the box score. But shouldn't he do something, ANYTHING, that does show up in the box score?!?

I've looked at his breakdowns at 82 games.com (Link) and the team doesn't play significantly worse when he's on the court. The offense stagnates, but the team defense improves, so the net effect is negligible (-3.1 points per 48 min with him, -2.1 points per 48 without him). Of course, he's playing a lot of minutes with the starters, so the other 4 guys on the court could be masking the true damage he inflicts on the team.

But it's when you compare Scalabrine to the guy he's guarding that things get ugly. When he's at PF, he averages 10.5 points (.389 eFG%), 5.5 rebounds, and 1.4 assists per 48 minutes. The PF he's opposing averages 17.2 points (.537 eFG%), 9.3 rebounds, and 2.0 assists per 48. When he slides to SF, the numbers are even worse. Now, it's not so much the numbers he's giving up (his opponents are actually less efficient than league average according to John Hollinger's PER whether he's at SF or PF). It's that his own stats are horrendous. Oh, but the things that don't show up in the box score, Kevin, don't forget them!!

I do feel a little bad for him, though. Since we traded Mark "I rebound like a schoolgirl" Blount, there aren't as many targets for my vitriol, so Scalabrine gets a larger share than he used to. Poor guy. If only vitriol showed up in the box score.....

Posted by Kevin Appleby at 10:11 AM | Permalink | Comments (760) | TrackBacks (0)

Hello and welcome to my corner of the web.
I'm going to be discussing all things that interest me here. Mostly, that will be sports.

Before we get started, I want to let you know where I'm coming from.
I root for the Pirates, Steelers, Celtics, Penguins, Pitt, and Penn State (my wife's family won me over to the dark side). I root against any team from New York, Los Angeles, or Philadelphia.

I am a self-described Stat Geek, so many of my postings will likely have a statistical bent.

By day, I am a programmer in a dying language. By evening, I am a husband of eleven years (and counting) and a father of three. By night, I am an internet-addicted sports fan.

Let's get this thing started. Hopefully, it's enjoyable for both you and me.

Posted by Kevin Appleby at 09:42 PM | Permalink | Comments (508) | TrackBacks (0)