KevinAppleby.com: Pirate Preview

After a long break, I'll finally look at the Pirate outfield.
The rates I'll be using as estimations are ZiPS projections from Baseball Think Factory's Dan Szymborski.

LF - Jason Bay - .297/.395/.557
CF - Chris Duffy - .287/.338/.384
RF - Jeromy Burnitz - .240/.311/.412

Assorted Backups:
Craig Wilson - .266/.363/.482
Jody Gerut - .269/.348/.446
Nate McLouth - .283/.343/.406

Others:
Rajai Davis, Ray Sadler

On Offense:
Jason Bay is a very nice hitter and should compete for Pittsburgh's lone All-Star berth again this season. His RBI and Run totals aren't impressive because of the players around him, but his rate stats are fantastic. Bay was arguably one of the 10 most valuable players in the NL last year, but many didn't notice because of the team he plays on. Duffy is unlikely to put up big numbers this season as he plays full-time in the Majors for the first time, but he did well last season and could be the type of player the Pirates need at the top of the lineup. His career .370 OBP in the minors combined with 30 SB potential would be a nice addition, but he'll likely not reach those numbers this season.
Finally, the trouble spot is RF. The Pirates went out and signed Jeromy Burnitz to play RF over what could have been a very effective platoon of Craig Wilson and Jody Gerut (both of whom are better hitters at this stage of their careers than Burnitz). Burnitz will hit home runs if given enough plate appearrances. The problem is that he'll make way too many outs to get those numbers. Wilson is arguably the team's 2nd-best hitter, so signing Burnitz to keep Wilson out of the lineup makes absolutely no sense.

On Defense:
In left, Jason Bay is one of the better fielders in the majors. He's capable of sliding to CF for short periods, but that's not something you'd want to see for 162 games.
In center, Duffy has speed and is well-thought-of by fans (as per Tangotiger's Fan Scouting Report
). Even if his offense isn't quite there yet this season, he'll be an asset to this team.
In right, you could defend the downgrade in offense of the Burnitz move if he were a comparable upgrade defensively. Unfortunately, that's not the case. Burnitz isn't any better than Wilson, and they're both a step (or three) slower than Gerut.

Overall:
If not for the Burnitz move (can you tell it bugged me??), I'd be pretty happy with the Pittsburgh outfield this season regardless of whether the RF job was Wilson's alone or he had to share it with Gerut. Still, I'm happy with Bay and Duffy and am looking forward to the season. If things click for Duffy and the team is smart enough not to play Burnitz, a Bay/Duffy/Wilson outfield could be better on offense than any outfield the Pirates have run out there in a few years. Of course, if Duffy struggles in his first full season and Burnitz takes 500+ PAs, they could be pretty poor offensively despite how good Bay is. I choose hope.

KevinAppleby.com

Pirate Preview - Outfield

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