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After a long break, I'll finally look at the Pirate outfield.
The rates I'll be using as estimations are ZiPS projections from Baseball Think Factory's Dan Szymborski.

LF - Jason Bay - .297/.395/.557
CF - Chris Duffy - .287/.338/.384
RF - Jeromy Burnitz - .240/.311/.412

Assorted Backups:
Craig Wilson - .266/.363/.482
Jody Gerut - .269/.348/.446
Nate McLouth - .283/.343/.406

Others:
Rajai Davis, Ray Sadler

On Offense:
Jason Bay is a very nice hitter and should compete for Pittsburgh's lone All-Star berth again this season. His RBI and Run totals aren't impressive because of the players around him, but his rate stats are fantastic. Bay was arguably one of the 10 most valuable players in the NL last year, but many didn't notice because of the team he plays on. Duffy is unlikely to put up big numbers this season as he plays full-time in the Majors for the first time, but he did well last season and could be the type of player the Pirates need at the top of the lineup. His career .370 OBP in the minors combined with 30 SB potential would be a nice addition, but he'll likely not reach those numbers this season.
Finally, the trouble spot is RF. The Pirates went out and signed Jeromy Burnitz to play RF over what could have been a very effective platoon of Craig Wilson and Jody Gerut (both of whom are better hitters at this stage of their careers than Burnitz). Burnitz will hit home runs if given enough plate appearrances. The problem is that he'll make way too many outs to get those numbers. Wilson is arguably the team's 2nd-best hitter, so signing Burnitz to keep Wilson out of the lineup makes absolutely no sense.

On Defense:
In left, Jason Bay is one of the better fielders in the majors. He's capable of sliding to CF for short periods, but that's not something you'd want to see for 162 games.
In center, Duffy has speed and is well-thought-of by fans (as per Tangotiger's Fan Scouting Report
). Even if his offense isn't quite there yet this season, he'll be an asset to this team.
In right, you could defend the downgrade in offense of the Burnitz move if he were a comparable upgrade defensively. Unfortunately, that's not the case. Burnitz isn't any better than Wilson, and they're both a step (or three) slower than Gerut.

Overall:
If not for the Burnitz move (can you tell it bugged me??), I'd be pretty happy with the Pittsburgh outfield this season regardless of whether the RF job was Wilson's alone or he had to share it with Gerut. Still, I'm happy with Bay and Duffy and am looking forward to the season. If things click for Duffy and the team is smart enough not to play Burnitz, a Bay/Duffy/Wilson outfield could be better on offense than any outfield the Pirates have run out there in a few years. Of course, if Duffy struggles in his first full season and Burnitz takes 500+ PAs, they could be pretty poor offensively despite how good Bay is. I choose hope.

Posted by Kevin Appleby at 08:44 AM | Permalink | Comments (53798) | TrackBacks (0)

Spring Training is underway, so it's time that I start discussing the Pirates' upcoming season.
Today, I'll take a look at the infield.
The rates I'll be using as estimations are ZiPS projections from Baseball Think Factory's Dan Szymborski.

C - Humberto Cota (.238/.296/.373) and Ryan Doumit (.264/.327/.424)
1B - Sean Casey (.313/.373/.441)
2B - Jose Castillo (.277/.325/.394)
SS - Jack Wilson (.272/.314/.395)
3B - Joe Randa (.277/.332/.440)

Well, that's not exactly an infield filled with heavy hitters, now is it??

Cota will likely see the majority of the time behind the plate despite being a worse hitter than both Doumit and Ronny Paulino. He's a better defender than either of the others, but that sub-.300 OBP is tough to swallow.

At the corners, the Pirates will have two newcomers in Sean Casey and Joe Randa. Both are veterans that can draw a walk and have nice doubles power. Normally, that's not how you want to describe your corner infielders, but the Pirates need players that are actually able to get on base. It's tough to score runs from the dugout. I've heard people knock both of these acquistions, but I'm actually pretty fond of these moves and think they'll help the team. After all, they're only replacing Daryle Ward and Freddy Sanchez/Rob Mackowiak.

Up the middle, Jack Wilson and Jose Castillo return. Neither one is a good hitter(Castillo's 2005 OPS+ was 87, Wilson's was 72). However, they should form one of the better double-play combos in the NL.

Defensively, this is going to be a very good infield. Randa has a solid reputation, but it looks as if he may be a slight step down from Sanchez. Casey will be a pretty significant upgrade over Ward/Eldred. As mentioned above, Wilson/Castillo has a chance to be a very nice combo up the middle.

Offensively, Casey is the only one who's going to provide much offense, and he could still be worse than the average 1B due to the nature of the position. Castillo and Doumit both have room to grow. If the Pirates are going to get more offense than expected from the infield, it's going to come from one of those two.

Depth: Ronny Paulino is waiting for a chance behind Cota and Doumit. At first, Craig Wilson could easily slide to first and Brad Eldred is going to be in AAA getting some more seasoning. At third, Freddy Sanchez is probably Randa's equal. Sanchez can also back up Castillo at second. At SS, the team could be in trouble if Wilson goes down. There doesn't seem to be anyone pushing for major league playing time right now.

Overall: While this isn't a group of All Stars, there aren't any glaring holes. They upgraded at first and are counting on natural progression for improvement at a couple of other spots. Signing Randa to replace Sanchez is questionable, but not indefensible. For the Pirates, this looks like a pretty good group.

Posted by Kevin Appleby at 12:24 PM | Permalink | Comments (706) | TrackBacks (0)